Anthropic study finds robots can perform three-quarters of US physical tasks, but are cost-competitive for 0.3 percent
A new robot exposure index finds that about 80 percent of work time is exposed to either robots or large language models.
Anthropic's economics research team has published a robot exposure index, built on how well robots can perform job tasks today. The study defines robots as autonomous physical machines that sense and act. It finds they can perform three-quarters of physical tasks in the US, or 34 percent of working hours, though mostly in limited settings. The researchers find that workers exposed to robots are more likely to be male, less educated and lower paid. Driving and warehouse jobs are highly exposed. Nursing and general repair are not, because current robots can do little of that work even in controlled environments. Counting both robots and LLMs, about 80 percent of job tasks by working time are exposed. The authors note that robots do work LLMs cannot, and that the remaining unexposed work is highly interpersonal or depends on physical skills robots lack. Cost is the main limit. The study finds robots are cost-competitive with human labor for just 0.3 percent of job tasks. If robot prices keep falling at past rates, the authors estimate it would take 40 years for that share to reach 10 percent. Capabilities, preferences and regulation are further barriers. Looking back, over the past 50 years jobs more exposed to robots saw larger declines in wages and employment, and robots have become able to do about 2 percent more physical work each year.